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Monday, December 21, 2009

Desalination the way to go - Our Street Smart for the month of Dec'09


HBJ Report Factory Price - Rs 1000/-

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"Water, water, everywhere, And all the boards did shrink; Water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink" - As i sit down to write this article, this part of some old poem that i have read somewhere comes to my mind. In fact, the lines reflect the crisis in which a part of the world is already in and many more being added at a faster pace. Let's not talk about the crisis in Africa or some other Asian countries. Let's speak about our very own country.

Providing utilizable water for domestic and industrial applications has become a major issue to India as the demand is rapidly rising due to various factors like population and economic growth and increasing urbanization. World Economic Forum has indeed classified Water management as one of the top problems that could impact India's growth story.

Drinking water scarcity is very high in coastal regions when compared to the interior part of the country, since the groundwater tends to be saline making it not suitable for drinking. However, it is good that the problem itself has a solution in it. Since these are coastal areas, desalination of sea water becomes an ideal solution to bridge the gap between the growing needs and the scarcity in these coastal areas. Supplying water from dams or getting it from other states or transporting through tankers have proved to be a costlier option than the water supplied by desalination.

There around 20 major cities including Mumbai, Chennai, Surat and Kolkatta that lie on the coast line and the water requirement for these cities recorded around 6000 million liters per day. The projected water requirement for all coastal cities is expected to be around 23,000 million liters per day by 2025.

The major reasons to go the desalination way for these cities include

$ Desalination being economic compared with other current methods of supply
$ Depleting groundwater and surface water can be saved
$ Rate of replenishment is very high in desalination compared to other methods
$ Population explosion and rapid urbanization
$ Very high scalability

Considering that around 20% of the water requirements by these coastal cities are met by desalination, it would require an investment of around 400 billion USD. The capacity installed will need to be around 5000 MLD to meet this 20% demand. Clearly the governing bodies at level will not be able to invest even a small part of this money and hence PPP seems to be the only solution.

A classic example is the Country's first large scale desalination plant at Chennai which is executed by a partnership between IVRCL - BEFASA consortium and Chennai water board. The plant currently extracts around 273 million liters of sea water, processes them through reverse osmosis and supplies 100 million liters of water to the Chennai metro. The remaining 173 MLD will be let back into the sea. The plant is close to completion.

The interest in desalination has been fast catching and there could be huge opportunities opening up. Already Gujarat has floated a tender for 150 MLD desalination plant and Chennai has floated a tender for the next desalination plant with a higher capacity. Andhra is not let behind and is probing the probabilities.

There are a host of companies which have already executed and there are others which have the capabilities to execute or be a part of these projects. The opportunity is huge and when the idea gets momentum, you will see some of these companies getting some big ticket orders. The companies could be one of the Pump suppliers, Construction companies, Equipment suppliers, Design engineering services companies and Technology suppliers.


- Team HBJ Capital

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Our "Business Insight" recommendation for Dec'09 : Its H2 FY10 revenue likely to be 4-5 times higher than H1 FY10.

HBJ Report Factory Price - Rs 1500/-

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It is always wise to look for the sector which is being ignored. Real estate after doing exceptionally well during 2005-08 witnessed a setback in 2009, and is thus outside the radar of most of the investors. We therefore feel that this sector provides an immense opportunity to make money as usual, provided one selects the right company.

So, here we are coming up with our "Business Insight - Dec'09" recommendation, which is into affordable housing solutions for the last two decades. Certain calculations and the talk with the management makes up believe that the company is poised for multi-fold growth in the next 2-3 years.

Residential Real estate


Owning a house is a dream of every individual and it is this dream that fueled the exponential growth of real estate companies during mid 2000. However , the global meltdown had a catastrophic effect on the industry with even the biggest players facing severe liquidity issues.

Out of residential housing and commercial real estate, the latter one suffered more and is still not completely out of the clutches of recession. However, housing sector is one which has again picked up pace with affordable housing bailing out most of the real estate companies. The signs of economic revival during the first quarter of 2009-10, have virtually led to an increased demand in the housing space. The latest September quarter results for the realty firms holds testimony to the fact that buyers are eventually returning to the market. As per the data, there's an increase of 12% quarter-on-quarter (qoq ) sales growth of the top five companies in the sector.

Affordable Housing - A window of opportunity


The supply side concentration in the premium housing segment combined with the slowdown necessitated the shift in development focus from high/mid-end residential apartments to affordable housing for the masses.
The eagerness of global institutional players in the Indian real estate market, particularly in the mass housing segment, and the recent introduction of government policies conducive to private participation are making real estate developers eye this opportunity.

With premium housing and commercial realty market still in near comatose, the affordable housing projects are now catching the eye of dedicated real estate funds and private equity (PE) firms which are chasing opportunities in this emerging space.

A latest report on affordable housing by Knight Frank has projected a market size of over Rs 3,00,000 crore by 2011. The scope of this sector is expected to arise from housing requirement of over 2 million units by 2011.

Some details on our "Business Insight - Dec'09" pick.


The company has recorded good growth in nos. for quarter ending Sep'09 over year ago period and also over Jun'09. We expect the good performance to continue because of the quantum jump in sales witnessed by the company. As a matter of fact, we expect the revenues for second half year ending Mar'10 to be 4-5 times higher than the revenue for half year ending Sep'09. Our assumption is based on certain rationale which can be found on slides 15, 16 and 17 of our report scheduled for release on 20th Dec'09. This company has Q3 & Q4 results as near term trigger which might lead to the share price appreciation by 100-200% in next 3-4 months itself.

The promoters have shown confidence in the working of the company by subscribing to equity shares allotted on conversion of warrants. The conversion price was higher by the then prevailing market price by more than 20%. Thus the promoters have increased their holding in the company (always a good sign).

At the end I would like to say that one has to recognize when the right place, right people and the right time fuse and take advantage of that opportunity. There are only few opportunities out there, don't miss them. You can't sit back and wait for ever, time is running out, grab it fast, who knows the opportunity in hand might change your life for ever.


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